I'm leaning heavily towards Paragon. It's pretty obvious when you think about it. They have a monopoly on all the arms tech and food production and could probably wipe out the other two if they wanted, and likely the only reason they haven't is cuz it would be way too expensive to be worth it
If you ask me, making them also be the ones in chage of food production is a huge mistake, cuz it kinda ruins the trifecta of needs thing the devs had going on with the big three. They probably should have made Brightwater the ones who have the stranglehold on food, because this may have created a sort of perfect balance of force, basic needs, and leisure between the three. But thats just my opinion.
Utopian Skies is pretty clearly the weakest of the bunch. Sure its nice having brothels and casinos, but unlike food, medicine, and security, you dont need them to live. Hell, Paragon is already making them redundant with their newest dealings with carver, so its only a matter of time until theyre burned out.
And much like Shepard, when i went through the party and just did what came naturally i ended up with paragon anyway.